The Finance Algorithm

Cash Flow Forecast

Project your business cash flow over time. See when cash runs low, plan for seasonal dips, and ensure you can cover expenses and loan repayments.

Updated October 2026Built and checked by MaverickHow it's calculatedReport an error

Your numbers

Updates as you type
$
$50k

Your average monthly income (GST-exclusive)

$
$38k

All monthly costs: rent, wages, supplies, utilities, loan repayments

$
$25k

Cash currently in your business bank account(s)

Seasonal businesses need stronger cash reserves

Slow-paying clients create cash flow gaps

$
$0

Any planned large purchases, equipment, BAS payments, or one-off costs

3

How many months of expenses you want to hold in cash. Your choice: seasonal and slow-paid businesses may want more

The button asks our AI to explain these figures in words.

Cash flow projection (12 months)

Monthly surplus

$12,000

$144,000 annual

Lowest cash point

$25,000

reached in now

Months of runway

0.7

current cash ÷ monthly expenses

Reserve gap

$89,000

vs 2.5-month target

Current cash vs target reserve

Against your target of 3 months of expenses held in cash.

$114,000target
Current cash21.9%
Reserve gap78.1%

Projected closing balance

Balance trajectory across the forecast. Watch for seasonal dips and ensure the trough still covers operating expenses.

$37,000Jul$49,000Aug$61,000Sep$73,000Oct$85,000Nov$97,000Dec$109,000Jan$121,000Feb$133,000Mar$145,000Apr$157,000May$169,000Jun

Monthly cash in minus out

Negative months are normal in seasonal businesses: what matters is that surplus months are large enough to cover the deficits.

$12,000Jul$12,000Aug$12,000Sep$12,000Oct$12,000Nov$12,000Dec$12,000Jan$12,000Feb$12,000Mar$12,000Apr$12,000May$12,000Jun
Set aside GST separately. GST collected isn't your money: keep it in a separate account so the quarterly BAS doesn't catch you off guard. Review the forecast weekly for the next 4-8 weeks; rolling it forward each Friday catches issues before they become crises.

How it works

Cash flow is the #1 reason small businesses fail, not lack of profit, but running out of cash at the wrong time. You can be profitable on paper but unable to pay wages if your clients take 60 days to pay. This tool projects your cash position over 6-12 months, factoring in seasonal variation, payment delays, and upcoming expenses. It highlights when cash runs low so you can arrange finance, chase invoices, or delay purchases before it becomes a crisis.

  1. 1Enter your average monthly revenue and expenses.
  2. 2Input your current cash balance.
  3. 3Select your revenue seasonality pattern.
  4. 4Choose how quickly your clients typically pay.
  5. 5Add any major upcoming expenses.
  6. 6Get a month-by-month cash flow projection with alerts.

The figures today

As of 7 November 2026, the lowest business loan rate is 6.33%, from SCCU's BUSINESS LOAN, while the typical best across 47 institutions is 7.89%. The lowest business overdraft rate is 8.24%, from IMB Bank's Commercial Credit line, while the typical best across 12 institutions is 10.06%.

Worked examples

Consulting Business

A consulting firm earns $80,000/month revenue with $55,000/month expenses and $30,000 cash. Clients pay on 45-day terms.

Monthly surplus: $25,000. But with 45-day payment terms, there's always ~$120,000 in outstanding invoices. If two major clients pay late simultaneously, the $30,000 buffer only covers 2 weeks of expenses. Two months of expenses, about $110,000, would cover it; invoice finance is another way to bridge the gap.

Seasonal Retail Business

A surf shop peaks Nov-Feb ($60,000/month) but drops to $15,000/month in winter. Expenses are steady at $30,000/month.

Summer surplus: $30,000/month × 4 = $120,000. Winter deficit: $15,000/month × 4 = -$60,000. The business needs to bank $60,000+ during summer to survive winter. Without planning, it runs out of cash by July.

Questions people ask

How often should I update my cash flow forecast?
Weekly for the next 4-8 weeks (detailed), monthly for 3-12 months ahead. Update it every time a major invoice is paid or a new expense arises. Many accounting software packages (Xero, MYOB, QuickBooks) can generate rolling cash flow forecasts automatically from your actual data.
What if my cash flow forecast shows a shortfall?
Options: 1) Chase outstanding invoices aggressively. 2) Offer early payment discounts. 3) Delay non-essential purchases. 4) Arrange a line of credit or overdraft (do this before you need it). 5) Consider invoice financing/factoring. 6) Negotiate longer payment terms with suppliers.
Should I include GST in my cash flow forecast?
Yes. GST collected from customers is not your money: it belongs to the ATO. Include it as both income (when received) and a liability (when BAS is due). Many businesses get caught out by quarterly BAS payments because they didn't set aside the GST. Best practice: separate bank account for GST/tax.

The terms, in plain English

Cash Flow
The movement of money in and out of your business. Positive cash flow means more money coming in than going out. Different from profit, which is an accounting measure.
Accounts Receivable
Money owed to your business by customers who haven't paid yet. High receivables with slow payment = cash flow problems even if profitable.
Working Capital
Current assets minus current liabilities. The cash available for day-to-day operations. Healthy working capital means you can pay bills, wages, and suppliers on time.
Invoice Financing
A financing arrangement where a lender advances you cash against outstanding invoices (a share of the invoice value set by the lender). It usually costs more than a traditional loan but provides cash sooner.

Official sources